Description: The Lee and Carter LC method is getting widely adopted for long-run forecasts of age specific mortality rates. That popularity is first due to the model simplicity. Moreover, the LC model has given successful results for various countries e.g. U.S., Chile, G7 countries. However, some difficulties arose when using population data from certain countries such as UK and Australia. In the present paper, the LC model is applied to data from four Nordic countries: Denmark, Finland, Norway and Sweden. The Singular Value Decomposition SVD, the Weighted Least Square WLS and the Maximum Likelihood estimate MLE are used. These approaches give satisfactory results. The appropriate fitting period needs, however, to be well chosen. The properties of the model's parameters are studied using a bootstrap simulation.

Description: This paper gives an overview of the data available to the Government Actuary's Department GAD and Continuous Mortality Investigation Bureau CMIB and examines the problems encountered in estimating mortality rates at old ages in the U.K. for both the general population and those taking out insurance. From 2005 Living to 100 and Beyond Monograph, M-LI0-1.

Description: This paper develops a model of annuity mortality that facilitates a more thorough evaluation of the issues of policyholder antiselection and insurance company response. Aging occurs as an annuitant's health state changes. Death occurs either as terminal health state or by accident. By knowing the current health state, the annuitant or insurance company can improve its knowledge about life expectancy.

Description: Presented at Living to 100 symposium January 2002. This paper evaluates age and sex specific patterns of change in underlying and multiple cause of death reports for the period 1980-1998 for 14 leading causes of death at ages 65 and older. Changes in four types of mortality measures will be analyzed: 1 underlying cause death rates 2 multiple cause death rates 3 associated cause death rates and 4 death rates based on the joint occurrences of multiple cause conditions. Implications of the results are discussed in the context of existing models for analyzing and forecasting future mortality patterns in the U.S.

Description: In addition to gender, age, period and cohort are three main risk factors considered in constructing mortality models. Other than these factors, it is believed marriage status is related to health and longevity. In this study, we use Taiwan’s marital data for the whole population to evaluate if marriage status can be a preferred criteria. In addition to checking if mortality rates vary for different marital statuses, we want to know if this preferred criteria will be valid in the future. We chose Lee-Carter and age-period-cohort models to model the mortality improvements of various marital statuses. Because of linear dependence in the parameters of the age-period-cohort model, we used computer simulation to chose the appropriate estimation method. We found the married have significantly lower mortality rates than the single and, if converting the difference into a life insurance policy, the discount amount is even larger than that for smokers/nonsmokers.

Description: Abstract: In addition to gender, age, period and cohort are three main risk factors considered in constructing mortality models. Other than these factors, it is believed marriage status is related to health and longevity. In this study, we use Taiwan’s marital data for the whole population to evaluate if marriage status can be a preferred criteria. In addition to checking if mortality rates vary for different marital statuses, we want to know if this preferred criteria will be valid in the future. We chose Lee-Carter and age-period-cohort models to model the mortality improvements of various marital statuses. Because of linear dependence in the parameters of the age-period-cohort model, we used computer simulation to chose the appropriate estimation method. We found the married have significantly lower mortality rates than the single and, if converting the difference into a life insurance policy, the discount amount is even larger than that for smokers/nonsmokers.

Description: Using population data, mortality rates are projected for people who will attain age 80 in the future. Finally, the distribution of the maximum age at death that will be attained by a Canadian is investigated.

Description: Announcement about CKER Travel Grants for the 41st ARC.

Description: An article from the Expanding Horizons newsletter, issue 26, published in April 2003 that previews the Spring Meeting E&R sessions.

Description: Seven appendices laying out the research data used in this paper in table form. From Why Men Die Younger: Causes of Mortality Differences by Sex, M-LI01-1.